Statistical Downscaling Based on Dynamically DownscaledPredictors： Application to Monthly Precipitation in Sweden   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Cecilia HELLSTR?M  Deliang CHEN 《大气科学进展》2003,20(6):951-958

A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.  相似文献   

国家之间经济发展水平比较与中国的差距     

何蕾  何百根 《世界地理研究》2003,12(3):38-43

为了促进现代化的实现,作者试图找出中国与发达国家之间的经济差距,并选取了世界银行公布数据的三个指标,代入自己设计的简便公式,测得中国与韩国、希腊的经济差距为26年(以2000年基准)。于是作者将发达国家分为一般发达国家和高度发达国家,把发展中国家分为一般发展中国家和发展中的发达国家。作者预计2020年中国将达到发展中的发达国家水平。并预测中国将在2007年经济总量超英国;中国与英国的人均水平差距约为34年。中国与美国经济总量的差距约为35年,中美之间的人均水平差距约为44年,动态差距将在50年以上。结论,中国在2030年将可达到一般发达国家水平,即可实现现代化。  相似文献   

青藏高原地面加热场强度变化及其与太阳活动的关系   总被引：8，自引：5，他引：8  

李栋梁 《高原气象》2006,25(6):975-982

利用1958—2006年日喀则和玉树观测的历年各月平均地面(0 cm)温度和气温(百叶箱)资料,采用新量纲重新计算并续补了48年的青藏高原地面加热场强度距平指数。结果表明,青藏高原地面加热场强度存在后延1~2个月的显著相关,干季具有较好的持续性。除存在明显的年际和年代际变化特征外,总体表现出春、夏季由弱变强,秋、冬季由强变弱,且具有稳定而显著的准11年和17年周期。持续的太阳黑子数偏少对青藏高原地面加热场强度的增强具有明显的指示性;太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)变长(太阳活动减弱)时,青藏高原地面加热场强度减弱。通过初步分析认为,太阳活动是引起青藏高原地面加热场强度变化的重要原因之一。  相似文献   

高光谱遥感在农作物长势监测中的应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

郑有飞 《气象与环境科学》2007,30(1):10-16

该研究是加拿大Saskatchewan Scott农作物轮作系统(ACS)研究的一部分.研究始于1994年,历时18 a,评价9个可耕种农作物产量系统的可靠性.由3种处理水平(organic,reduced,high)和3种作物多样性水平(low,diversified annual grains,diversified annual perennials)结合而产生的9个农作物产量系统,被用于监测和评价加拿大牧场不同处理和不同作物种植轮作下可耕种农作物的产量.在2003年生长季共收集了3次叶面积指数和光谱反射率的数据:生长季前期(6月)、生长季旺盛期(7月)、生长季后期(8月).叶面积指数是由LAI-2000植物冠层分析仪监测的,光谱测量是由覆盖了350～2500 nm波长范围共2215个波段的ADS便携式高光谱仪完成的.结果显示,光学测量可以用于监测农作物生长状况的差异.从生长季的早期到中期,光谱和叶面积指数在不同处理下有显著差异.7月中期是用遥感资料监测农作物长势的最佳季节;红光波段与近红外波段反射率的比值和基于这两个波段构造的归一化植被指数,是检测农作物长势的最佳植被指数.  相似文献   

A high-resolution reconstruction of Storglaciären mass balance back to 1780/81 using tree-ring data and circulation indices     

Hans W. Linderholm  Peter Jansson 《Quaternary Research》2007,67(1):12-20

Storglaciären in northernmost Sweden has the world's longest ongoing continuous mass-balance record, starting in 1946. To extend this mass-balance record, we have reconstructed summer (b_S) and winter (b_W) mass balances separately back to the mass balance year 1780/81 with annual resolution. We used tree-ring data for b_S and a set of circulation indices, based on the sea-level pressure, for b_W. Both proxies have correlation coefficients with respective mass balance components of ca. 0.7. The reconstructed net balance (b_N) of Storglaciären was well correlated to the observations during 1946-1980 (r = 0.8, p < 0.05). Our reconstruction agrees well with previously obtained results of northern Sweden glacier variability, where the predominantly positive b_N years between 1890 and 1910 correspond to the well documented post-Little Ice Age advance of Storglaciären. Furthermore, the results suggest that b_S, as a function of summer temperatures, is more important than b_W in determining the b_N, which is contrary to glaciers in the maritime parts of western Scandinavia. In general, b_N has been negative over the last 220 yr, suggesting a predomination of continental conditions over northern Sweden. However, the influence of b_W increased in the late twentieth century, indicating a shift to a more oceanic climate regime.  相似文献   

A review on reflective remote sensing and data assimilation techniques for enhanced agroecosystem modeling     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2007,9(2):165-193

During the last 50 years, the management of agroecosystems has been undergoing major changes to meet the growing demand for food, timber, fibre and fuel. As a result of this intensified use, the ecological status of many agroecosystems has been severely deteriorated. Modeling the behavior of agroecosystems is, therefore, of great help since it allows the definition of management strategies that maximize (crop) production while minimizing the environmental impacts. Remote sensing can support such modeling by offering information on the spatial and temporal variation of important canopy state variables which would be very difficult to obtain otherwise.In this paper, we present an overview of different methods that can be used to derive biophysical and biochemical canopy state variables from optical remote sensing data in the VNIR-SWIR regions. The overview is based on an extensive literature review where both statistical–empirical and physically based methods are discussed. Subsequently, the prevailing techniques of assimilating remote sensing data into agroecosystem models are outlined. The increasing complexity of data assimilation methods and of models describing agroecosystem functioning has significantly increased computational demands. For this reason, we include a short section on the potential of parallel processing to deal with the complex and computationally intensive algorithms described in the preceding sections.The studied literature reveals that many valuable techniques have been developed both for the retrieval of canopy state variables from reflective remote sensing data as for assimilating the retrieved variables in agroecosystem models. However, for agroecosystem modeling and remote sensing data assimilation to be commonly employed on a global operational basis, emphasis will have to be put on bridging the mismatch between data availability and accuracy on one hand, and model and user requirements on the other. This could be achieved by integrating imagery with different spatial, temporal, spectral, and angular resolutions, and the fusion of optical data with data of different origin, such as LIDAR and radar/microwave.  相似文献   

陕西关中及周边地区近500a来初夏旱涝事件初步分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

尹红  郭品文  刘洪滨  邵雪梅  LINDERHOLM Hans 《南京气象学院学报》2007,30(1):51-56

基于华山树轮宽度差值年表重建的陕西关中及周边地区近500a来的初夏干燥指数序列,对该地区初夏极端旱涝事件及其连续旱涝变化特征进行了初步分析.区域干燥指数与Palmer指数在变化上极为相似,可用于反映该地区的旱涝变化.结果表明:该地区近500a来初夏共发生18次极端干旱事件和11次极端洪涝事件,除公元1521年与历史文献记录的旱涝事件相反,公元1513年、1574年、1675年和1945年未发现历史记录外,其余年份均能找到相应记录;近500a来初夏存在9个显著的连续偏旱期和10个显著的连续偏涝期,并以16和19世纪发生的连续旱涝事件最为频繁,而17和18世纪发生的旱涝事件相对较少,20世纪发生的干旱事件明显多于洪涝事件.  相似文献   

表外矿石利用途径   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘维阁 《矿产与地质》1998,12(5):349-352

近年来江西德兴、永平、武山铜矿开展了表外矿石回收利用的研究工作,总结了三种利用表外矿石的途径,（１）调整采矿指标,充分利用表外矿石的范围,（２）合理搭配矿石,综合回收表外矿石的有用组份,（３）结合市场动态,经济合理地改进开采计划和采用有效的采矿方法等实践证明其方法是可行的,既可充分合理利用资源,又可提高经济效益  相似文献   

赤道太平洋对流活动异常对我国夏季降水和气温的影响     

郭艳君  倪允琪 《气象》1998,24(6):11-16

利用月平均ＯＬＲ、降水和气温资料,研究了ＥＮＳＯ期间赤道太平洋对流活动与我国夏季降水和气温的关系。结果表明：春季、夏季中、西太平洋对流活动异常与我国夏季江淮地区的降水有密切关系;春季和前一年冬季西太平洋对流活动异常与东北地区夏季降水有显著相关。前一年冬季中、西太平洋对流活动异常与我国降水的显著相关区是不同的,前者为华南、西南地区,后者为东北至内蒙古一带。气温与同期中、西太平洋对流活动的相关不显著。  相似文献   

Biological structures as a source of habitat heterogeneity and biodiversity on the deep ocean margins   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lene Buhl-Mortensen  Ann Vanreusel  rew J. Gooday  Lisa A. Levin  Imants G. Priede  Pål Buhl-Mortensen  Hendrik Gheerardyn  Nicola J. King  & Maarten Raes 《Marine Ecology》2010,31(1):21-50

Biological structures exert a major influence on species diversity at both local and regional scales on deep continental margins. Some organisms use other species as substrates for attachment, shelter, feeding or parasitism, but there may also be mutual benefits from the association. Here, we highlight the structural attributes and biotic effects of the habitats that corals, sea pens, sponges and xenophyophores offer other organisms. The environmental setting of the biological structures influences their species composition. The importance of benthic species as substrates seems to increase with depth as the complexity of the surrounding geological substrate and food supply decline. There are marked differences in the degree of mutualistic relationships between habitat-forming taxa. This is especially evident for scleractinian corals, which have high numbers of facultative associates (commensals) and few obligate associates (mutualists), and gorgonians, with their few commensals and many obligate associates. Size, flexibility and architectural complexity of the habitat-forming organism are positively related to species diversity for both sessile and mobile species. This is mainly evident for commensal species sharing a facultative relationship with their host. Habitat complexity is enhanced by the architecture of biological structures, as well as by biological interactions. Colony morphology has a great influence on feeding efficiency for suspension feeders. Suspension feeding, habitat-forming organisms modify the environment to optimize their food uptake. This environmental advantage is also passed on to associated filter-feeding species. These effects are poorly understood but represent key points for understanding ecosystems and biodiversity on continental margins. In this paper we explore the contributions of organisms and the biotic structures they create (rather than physical modifications) to habitat heterogeneity and diversity on the deep continental margins.  相似文献